PVC Industry Development Faces Multiple Tests

In 2007, the PVC industry maintained a momentum of rapid growth. In 2008, opportunities and challenges coexist: The rapid development of the macro economy has provided strong support for the industry; however, the implementation of strategies such as circular economy, energy saving and emission reduction, and export tax rebate reduction The release of policies such as the cancellation of preferential tariffs, the improvement of access thresholds, and the implementation of EU REACH regulations and international trade disputes will all have a profound impact on the development of the chlor-alkali industry.
In 2007, the total capacity of China's PVC was estimated to reach a record 15.2 million tons, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year; the total output reached 9.6 million to 9.7 million tons, which is the world's largest producer; apparent consumption exceeds 10 million. Tons, ranking first in the world.
As a whole, in 2007, the capacity of China's PVC industry increased rapidly, and the reconstruction, expansion, and new construction projects were launched. The scale of the equipment became more and more reasonable, the level of technology was continuously improved, and the overall strength of the industry was further enhanced. In East China, North China, and Northwest China, the production capacity is relatively concentrated. In eastern China, which originally accounted for a large proportion of its production capacity, the proportion of production capacity is declining year by year due to factors such as environmental protection and raw materials. The calcium carbide process is based on cost advantages and is in market competition. In an advantageous position, the proportion of this process to the total production capacity is close to 75%; raw material prices form a strong support for the PVC market, mainly due to energy-saving emission reduction and environmental protection factors driving up costs; exports continue to maintain rapid growth, last year From January to October, China accumulatively exported 594,000 tons of polyvinyl chloride powder, and trade frictions also began to appear.
With the rapid development of China's PVC industry, the competition between enterprises has become increasingly intense, expanding from the market level to cost, technology, variety, quality, environmental protection and security. In the long run, the long-term development of PVC as an energy-intensive industry will be affected by the price of energy and raw materials, new construction and projects under construction, combined development of chlor-alkali industry and petrochemical industry, layout of enterprise sites, environmental safety, product applications, and markets. Development and many other factors. Looking forward to 2008, the situation at home and abroad will undergo further changes, and the pace of industry consolidation will gradually accelerate. We should pay attention to the development of the industry from many aspects:
First, we must have a clearer understanding of the expansion of production capacity. In 2008, the domestic PVC production capacity will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate. The Midwestern Coal and Salt Industry Group, with its own resources and financial advantages, will make great strides in the PVC industry and develop PVC products across industries. The number of enterprises will continue to increase. It is expected that this year, new production capacity will reach more than 3 million tons.
Second, the effect of industrial access policy adjustments gradually emerged. At the end of this year, the standards for the construction and expansion of polyvinyl chloride have been increased to 300,000 tons per year. The improvement of industry access standards is intended to increase the industrial concentration of PVC. The access policy follows the principle of optimizing the comprehensive utilization of resources, and it has proposed a guiding policy for the development of calcium carbide law companies, while there are relatively few restrictions on ethylene chlor-alkali enterprises. At present, the domestic listed companies in the chlor-alkali industry are mainly calcium carbide companies. Therefore, the "chlorine-alkali (caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride) industry access conditions" will have an important impact on the future development of the industry.
The third is to regulate the export market. The number of PVC exports in China has grown rapidly, and the calcium carbide process also has strong competitiveness in the international market. Therefore, China's PVC has encountered anti-dumping (special protection) measures in India, Turkey, and Brazil, and trade friction has gradually increased. . As China's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) goes to the international market is inevitable in the future, companies should standardize their operations and promote the healthy development of the international market.
Fourth, the impact of export tax rebate adjustment can not be ignored. This year, due to the huge trade surplus, the state restricted the export of high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industries, and the export tax rebate for PVC has been reduced to 5%, which has further reduced the profits of enterprises, and it does not rule out the possibility of the country continuing to adjust export tax rebates. In addition, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi is also a bad news for PVC exports.
Fifth, environmental protection requirements have been continuously improved. The improvement of environmental protection requirements has certain influence on PVC enterprises themselves, and the greater impact is on the raw materials of calcium carbide. The ever-increasing environmental protection standards will shut down calcium carbide plants that do not comply with environmental protection regulations and reduce the supply of calcium carbide, which in turn will lead to a shortage of PVC raw materials and increase prices. If the price of calcium carbide rises too fast, the competitiveness of the calcium carbide process will be weakened; for integrated production companies, their competitive advantage will be further manifested.